Swansea vs Derby
England – Championship
Date: Wednesday, 1st May 2019
Kick-off at 19.45 UK/ 20.45 CET
Venue: Liberty Stadium (Swansea).
Preview of the match Swansea vs Derby
Swansea saw their play-off hopes disappear when they managed to let a two-goal lead at home to Hull fall and only drew 2-2. That added to the victory for Derby meant they were seven points behind and could not catch them. The Welsh side are in good condition after winning five, drawing one and only losing one of their last seven.
At Liberty Stadium, the Swans flew with six wins in their last seven matches and have not lost in the last ten matches. Ollie McBurnie has six goals in his last four appearances in front of his own supporters. Only five teams have scored more home Championship goals in this campaign than Swansea have printed.
Derby were sixth following a 2-0 success at Bristol City and knew that the chance to finish in the play-offs was in their own hands. They are on the same point as Middlesbrough with a six-goal lead and have one match in hand. This means that a victory in one of their remaining two matches must be enough to complete the top six.
Far from Pride Park, the Rams victory at Bristol City ended eight matches without a win on their way. Jayden Bogle and Harry Wilson both have two goals from their last four appearances on the road. Their last five away matches from their own place have resulted in a combined total of 18 which averages more than three per match.
The visitors knew that if they won one of their last two matches, they would be confirmed in the play-offs (unless Boro can pull back a six-goal deficit). That doesn't mean they are the value here and the home team that has no defeat in the last ten they are here is ignored. We like swans in the lottery market without betting to get out here.
Ollie McBurnie grabbed two goals in a 2-2 draw at Hull and he looks good on the net every time here to add to the tally of six in his last four at the Liberty Stadium.
Reasons for Swansea City vs Derby
A 2-0 win at Bristol City made Derby in the top six, but repeating it at Swansea this week will effectively wrap up their playoffs. However, the Rams win the last for their away matches at the Championship for a two-week period between December 2017 and January 2018. This is something they haven't managed under Frank Lampard, so his team can produce some consistency on the road at the right time? With their hopes of sixth in the air, Swansea have a big role to play this week.
The hosts could have been in a playoff fight, but they slipped in a 2-2 draw with Hull here on Saturday. That made Swans seven points from the top six, a distance they couldn't close. The win will put them in five points ahead of this meeting with the team in sixth. While those hopes have vanished, this is a great opportunity for the Swans to prove themselves in a season that has seen much progress from Graham Potter's team. They play great football while taking results, which should worry the Rams.
Derby are ninth in the away table, after their victory at the weekend. It was their first success in eight matches on their journey, which showed their problems on the road this season. Lampard's side traveled here with seven wins in 22 matches on their way, drawing six and losing nine. They conceded 33 times in 22 matches, while they recorded clean sheets in only 14% of their trips. That was a concern in front of this game, with the Swans flying at home.
Swansea have 12 wins on their behalf here this season, only losing five times at Liberty. Only Premier League leaders Man City have won here since the end of December, with the Swans winning seven of their last nine home matches. When you add that the winless Derby in four visits to Swansea in all competitions (W1 D3 L0) began to show that the Welsh team is a favorite. Even so, they are outsiders here, giving us fantastic value to the Swans in the Double Opportunity market. It landed at 77% of Swansea's home matches, while Derby failed
